000245953 001__ 245953
000245953 005__ 20170829105745.0
000245953 037__ $$a428-2016-28072
000245953 037__ $$a428-2016-28627
000245953 041__ $$aen_US
000245953 245__ $$aRepresenting climatic uncertainty in agricultural models – an application of state-contingent theory
000245953 260__ $$c2013
000245953 269__ $$a2013
000245953 336__ $$aJournal Article
000245953 520__ $$aThe state-contingent approach to production uncertainty presents a more general
model than the conventional stochastic production approach. Here we investigate
whether the state-contingent approach offers a tractable framework for representing
climatic uncertainty at a farm level. We developed a discrete stochastic programming
(DSP) model of a representative wheat–sheep (mixed) farm in the Central West of
NSW. More explicit recognition of climatic states, and associated state-contingent
responses, led to optimal farm plans that were more profitable on average and less
prone to the effects of variations in climate than comparable farm plans based on the
expected value framework. The solutions from the DSP model also appeared to more
closely resemble farm land use than the equivalent expected value model using the
same data. We conclude that there are benefits of adopting a state-contingent view of
uncertainty, giving support to its more widespread application to other problems.
000245953 542__ $$fLicense granted by Greta Thormodson (thorm018@umn.edu) on 2016-10-10T20:30:54Z (GMT):

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000245953 650__ $$aCommunity/Rural/Urban Development
000245953 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries
000245953 650__ $$aEnvironmental Economics and Policy
000245953 6531_ $$aclimatic uncertainty
000245953 6531_ $$aexpected value
000245953 6531_ $$arisk
000245953 6531_ $$astate-contingent theory
000245953 6531_ $$astochastic programming
000245953 700__ $$aCrean, Jason
000245953 700__ $$aParton, Kevin
000245953 700__ $$aMullen, John
000245953 700__ $$aJones, Randall
000245953 773__ $$dSeptember 2013$$jVolume 57$$kIssue 3$$o378$$q359$$tAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
000245953 8564_ $$s342453$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/245953/files/ajar12005.pdf
000245953 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/245953
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  Previous issue date: 2013
000245953 982__ $$gAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics>Volume 57, Issue 3, September 2013
000245953 980__ $$a428