The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement would reduce or eliminates tariff and nontariff barriers to trade and increase investment among the parties. Dairy exporting countries in the TPP, including the United States, will compete for market share. This study aims to investigate the possible change in dairy trade flows if the TPP agreement is enacted and the implications for the US dairy industry. An empirical trade simulation model is developed focusing on US dairy trade to analyze the potential impacts.