000236342 001__ 236342 000236342 005__ 20210819131441.0 000236342 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.236342 000236342 037__ $$a333-2016-14268 000236342 041__ $$aeng 000236342 084__ $$aC11 000236342 084__ $$aD81 000236342 084__ $$aO12 000236342 084__ $$aO13 000236342 084__ $$aQ16 000236342 084__ $$aQ12 000236342 245__ $$aAgricultural Production, Weather Variability, and Technical Change: 40 Years of Evidence from Indi 000236342 260__ $$c2016 000236342 269__ $$a2016 000236342 270__ $$pMichler, Jeffrey 000236342 270__ $$pShively, Gerald 000236342 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation 000236342 520__ $$aWe pose the simple question: how large of a role does the weather play in determining variability of agricultural production in India? Despite the long standing interest in agricultural economics of estimating the effect of weather on crop output, few quantitative measures of impact exist. We use a long panel of parcel level data from six villages in India that covers $44$ seasons from 1976 to 2011. Estimation the impact of weather variability on yield is complicated by the role of technological change over this period. In our descriptive analysis we generate several stylized facts about how agricultural production in the subcontinent has changed over the last $40$ years. Most importantly, mean yields have increased and the variance in crop production, measured relative to the mean, has decreased. In a regression context, using a multilevel model, we find strong evidence of technical change and that weather variability makes up only a small share of total variability in yield. We conclude that Green Revolution technologies have reduced the amount of weather related risk faced by farmers, even when we account for greater amounts of variation in weather due to climate change 000236342 546__ $$aEnglish 000236342 650__ $$aAgricultural and Food Policy 000236342 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries 000236342 650__ $$aInternational Development 000236342 650__ $$aProduction Economics 000236342 650__ $$aRisk and Uncertainty 000236342 6531_ $$aWeather Risk 000236342 6531_ $$aAgricultural Production 000236342 6531_ $$aTechnical Change 000236342 6531_ $$aMultilevel Models 000236342 6531_ $$aRural India 000236342 700__ $$aMichler, Jeffrey 000236342 700__ $$aShively, Gerald 000236342 773__ $$d2016 000236342 8564_ $$9b7fed128-8829-467c-8324-f9da1077e9f5$$s2833329$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/236342/files/Michler_Shively_AAEA.pdf 000236342 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/236342 000236342 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:236342$$pGLOBAL_SET 000236342 912__ $$nSubmitted by Jeffrey Michler (jmichler@illinois.edu) on 2016-05-31T17:06:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Michler_Shively_AAEA.pdf: 2833329 bytes, checksum: 30e926160086eece330cc312210e5d5e (MD5) 000236342 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2016-05-31T17:06:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Michler_Shively_AAEA.pdf: 2833329 bytes, checksum: 30e926160086eece330cc312210e5d5e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 000236342 913__ $$aLicense granted by Jeffrey Michler (jmichler@illinois.edu) on 2016-05-31T16:54:58Z (GMT): <p class="ds-paragraph"> By depositing this Content ("Content") in AgEcon Search, I agree that I am solely responsible for any consequences of uploading this Content to AgEcon Search and making it publicly available, and I represent and warrant that: I am either the sole creator and the owner of the copyrights and all other rights in the Content; or, without obtaining another’s permission, I have the right to deposit the Content in an archive such as AgEcon Search. To the extent that any portions of the Content are not my own creation, they are used with the copyright holder’s express permission or as permitted by law. Additionally, the Content does not infringe the copyrights or other intellectual property rights of another, nor does the Content violate any laws or another’s rights of privacy or publicity. The Content contains no restricted, private, confidential, or otherwise protected data or information that should not be publicly shared. I understand that AgEcon Search will do its best to provide perpetual access to my Content. In order to support these efforts, I grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota ("University"), through AgEcon Search, the following non-exclusive, irrevocable, royalty-free, world-wide rights and licenses: to access, reproduce, distribute and publicly display the Content, in whole or in part, in order to secure, preserve and make it publicly available, and to make derivative works based upon the Content in order to migrate the Content to other media or formats, or to preserve its public access. These terms do not transfer ownership of the copyright(s) in the Content. These terms only grant to the University the limited license outlined above. </p> 000236342 980__ $$a333 000236342 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts