OPTIMAL TESTING STRATEGIES FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED WHEAT

A stochastic optimization model was developed to determine optimal testing strategies, costs, and risks of a dual marketing system. The model chooses the testing strategy (application, intensity, and tolerance) that maximizes utility (minimizes disutility) of additional system costs due to testing and quality loss and allows simulation of the risk premium required to induce grain handlers to undertake a dual marketing system versus a Non-GM system. Cost elements including those related to testing, quality loss, and a risk premium were estimated for a model representing a grain export chain. Uncertainties were incorporated and include test accuracy, risk of adventitious commingling throughout, and variety declaration. Sensitivities were performed for effects of variety risks, penalty differentials, re-elevation discounts, import tolerances, variety declaration, risk aversion, GM adoption, and domestic end-user.


Issue Date:
2003
Publication Type:
Report
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/23605
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/23605
Total Pages:
69
Series Statement:
Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report No. 520




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-22

Fulltext:
Download fulltext
PDF

Rate this document:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Not yet reviewed)