Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, external and foreign. Crashes tend to occur when: output growth is low; the growth of domestic credit is high; and the level of foreign interest rates is high. A low ratio of FDI to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash.


Issue Date:
1996-01
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/233424
Total Pages:
36
JEL Codes:
F32; F34
Series Statement:
Working Paper
C96-062




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-29

Fulltext:
Download fulltext
PDF

Rate this document:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Not yet reviewed)