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Abstract
The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rate's have remained high, failing to
converge to U.S. levels, despite capital market liberalization and a resurgence of portfolio
capital inflows during the second half of this sample period. Related questions are whether
portfolio capital flows are strong enough to equalize expected returns between these
"emerging markets" and the U.S., and whether there is any scope left for the authorities to
sterilize inflows. The conclusion of the study is that the\e largest single component of the
gap in interest rates is expectations of depreciation of the local currencies against the dollar.
Key to the analysis is the use of survey data on exchange rate forecasts by market
participants. Indicative of integrated financial markets, we also find a big effect of U.S.
interest rates on local interest rates, and a highly significant degree of capital flow offset to
monetary policy.