Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies

The properties of exchange rate forecasts are investigated, with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. Over the entire sample, expectations appear to be biased. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. There appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data: (i) the bias is lower for the high-inflation countries; (ii) the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers; and (iii) the bias is also greater for the EMS currencies.


Issue Date:
1993-01
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
Record Identifier:
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/233182
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/233182
Total Pages:
31
JEL Codes:
F31; 015
Series Statement:
Working Paper
C93-009




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-23

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