000232925 001__ 232925
000232925 005__ 20180123003643.0
000232925 037__ $$a841-2016-55923
000232925 041__ $$aen_US
000232925 084__ $$aE30
000232925 084__ $$aE50
000232925 084__ $$aC32
000232925 245__ $$aMacroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area
000232925 260__ $$c2016-03-18
000232925 269__ $$a2016-03-18
000232925 270__ $$mclaudio.morana@unimib.it$$pMorana,   Claudio
000232925 300__ $$a33
000232925 336__ $$aWorking or Discussion Paper
000232925 490__ $$aESP
000232925 490__ $$a23.2016
000232925 520__ $$aThe paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not all the oil price shocks are alike", yet without imposing any a priori identification assumption. We find evidence of recessionary effects triggered not only by oil price hikes, but also by oil price slumps in some cases, likewise for the most recent episode, which is also rising deflation risk and financial distress. In addition through uncertainty effects, the current slump might then be depressing aggregate demand by increasing the real interest rate, as ECB monetary policy is already conducted at the zero lower bound. The increase in real money balances following the slump points to the accommodation of the shock by the ECB, concurrent with the implementation of the Quantitative Easing policy (Q.E.). Yet, in so far as Q.E failed to generate inflationary expectations within the current and expected environment of soft oil prices, the case for a more expansionary use of fiscal policy than in the past would become compelling, in order to counteract the deflationary and recessionary threats to the euro area.
000232925 542__ $$fLicense granted by Emanuela Ragnolini (emanuela.ragnolini@feem.it) on 2016-03-18T10:47:04Z (GMT):

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000232925 650__ $$aFinancial Economics
000232925 6531_ $$aOil Price Shocks
000232925 6531_ $$aOil Price-macroeconomy Relationship
000232925 6531_ $$aRisk Factors
000232925 6531_ $$aSemiparametric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model
000232925 6531_ $$aTime-varying Parameter Models
000232925 700__ $$aMorana, Claudio
000232925 8564_ $$s1005036$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/232925/files/NDL2016-023.pdf
000232925 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/232925
000232925 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:232925$$pGLOBAL_SET
000232925 912__ $$nSubmitted by Emanuela Ragnolini (emanuela.ragnolini@feem.it) on 2016-03-18T10:49:42Z
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  Previous issue date: 2016-03-18
000232925 982__ $$gFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)>ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy
000232925 980__ $$a841