000229839 001__ 229839
000229839 005__ 20180123002925.0
000229839 037__ $$a1376-2016-109708
000229839 041__ $$aen_US
000229839 084__ $$aC18
000229839 245__ $$aDecomposition of Discrete Choice Model Generated Probabilities and their Robustness to Changing Substantive Knowledge (Conditioning Variables)
000229839 260__ $$c2016-02
000229839 269__ $$a2016-02
000229839 270__ $$msdharmasena@tamu.edu$$pDharmasena,   Senarath
000229839 270__ $$md-bessler@tamu.edu$$pBessler,   David
000229839 300__ $$a14
000229839 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000229839 520__ $$aClear understanding of “goodness” and how substantive knowledge contributes to such goodness is generally absent from the economist’s use of probability. Although probability forecast from either subjective experts or from data based on prior theory and models can be generated, it is more problematic to generate a “good probability forecast” with a crisp understanding of what constitutes “good”. Further it is generally not clear to economists how different conditioning information affects this measure of “good.” 
Heretofore probability forecasts have been evaluated using the Brier Score and its Yates partition. Our work contributes by exploring how different sets of substantive information affect the Brier score and each component of the Yates partition. We will explore partitions associated with a set of observational data on beverages and the associated consumer decision to purchase. Probabilities are modeled using discrete choice models. 
Results show the higher the substantive knowledge, higher the model’s ability to offer a high probability for events occurred versus low probability for events that did not occur. Also, this model gave rise to lower Brier Score (lower the better) and higher covariance between probabilities offered and events observed. Better sorting of probabilities was demonstrated in the model with more substantive knowledge.
000229839 542__ $$fLicense granted by Senarath Dharmasena (sdharmasena@tamu.edu) on 2016-01-21T17:41:55Z (GMT):

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000229839 650__ $$aConsumer/Household Economics
000229839 650__ $$aResearch Methods/ Statistical Methods
000229839 6531_ $$aBrier Score
000229839 6531_ $$aYates partition
000229839 6531_ $$aprobabilities
000229839 6531_ $$adiscrete choice model
000229839 6531_ $$abeverages
000229839 700__ $$aDharmasena, Senarath
000229839 700__ $$aBessler, David A.
000229839 773__ $$d2016
000229839 8564_ $$s272298$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/229839/files/Dharmasena_Bessler%20Probability%20Score%20SAEA%202016%20Paper.pdf
000229839 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/229839
000229839 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:229839$$pGLOBAL_SET
000229839 912__ $$nSubmitted by Senarath Dharmasena (sdharmasena@tamu.edu) on 2016-01-21T17:45:33Z
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  Previous issue date: 2016-02
000229839 982__ $$gSouthern Agricultural Economics Association>2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas
000229839 980__ $$a1376