The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?

This study examines the J-curve phenomenon for the U.S. agricultural trade and compares the effect on agricultural trade relative to the U.S. non-agricultural trade. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to estimate bilateral trade data between the U.S. and her three major trading partners ¦¡ Japan, Canada and Mexico. We find little evidence of the J-curve for the U.S. agricultural trade with Japan, Canada and Mexico. For the non-agricultural trade, on the other hand, the behavior of the U.S. trade with industrialized economies such as Japan and Canada follows the J-curve, but not with developing economies such as Mexico.

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Selected Paper 159857

 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-22

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