Determining the Probability of Default of Agricultural Loans in a French Bank

Recently, financial institutions have developed improved internal risk rating systems and emphasized the probability of default and loss given default. Also they have been affected by globalization and it became important to understand the way foreign banks operate. The probability of default is studied for 756 loans from a French bank: CIC- Banque SNVB. A binomial logit regression is used to estimate a model of the probability of default of an agribusiness loan. The results show that leverage, profitability and liquidity at loan origination are good indicators of the probability of default. The loan length is another good indicator of the probability of default. Also it is more accurate to develop a model for each type of collateral (activity).


Issue Date:
2006
Publication Type:
Conference Paper/ Presentation
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/21376
Total Pages:
34
Series Statement:
Selected Paper 156217




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-24

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