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Abstract
This paper provides a review on China’s meat trade for the 2000-2012 period and discusses its
future development, with reference to China’s grain trade. With marginal decreases in meat
exports and slight increases in their imports, China’s net imports of major meat products
(including pork, beef, mutton and poultry but excluding meat offal) were just below one
million tons in 2012, dwarfed by China’s net imports of grains which reached 66.7 million
tons in the same year. This slow growth in meat trade seems to contradict earlier expectations
on increasing meat demand and imports, based upon projected shifts in consumption patterns
driven by rapid per capita income growth. Several plausible explanations of this paradoxical
trade pattern are offered, including mass imports of feed grains, persistent (but shrinking)
gaps between Chinese and international meat prices, tariff barriers, and non-tariff measures.
In the near future China may not be able to maintain such a lower profile on the world meat
markets, as per capita income is projected to continue to rise and domestic production cost
advantages erode due to rising labor costs. A model-based projection exercise indicates that
under plausible assumptions China’s meat imports may rise sharply by 2030.