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Abstract
This paper investigates the causal effect of trade liberalization on children mortality by
exploiting 40 policy reform experiments spanning the 1960-2010 period. We use a new approach
– the Synthetic Control Method – for comparative case studies. Using this method we assess at the
country level the trajectory of post-reform health outcomes of treated countries, which
experienced a trade liberalization, with the trajectory of a combination of similar untreated
countries. Contrary to previous findings, we showed that the effect of trade liberalization on health
outcomes display a huge heterogeneity both in the direction and the magnitude of the effect.
Among the 40 investigated case studies, 20 displayed a reduction in children mortality after a
trade liberalization, and the majority of these are statistically significant. In 18 country casestudies
we did not find any relevant effect, while in two cases ‒ South Africa and Mauritania ‒ we
found a strong statistically significant worsening in child mortality after trade liberalization. Yet,
the underline reasons of these negative effects are driven by very different situations.