A Distribuição Normal-assimétrica como Modelo para Produtividade de Milho Aplicada ao Seguro Agrícola

The crop insurance sold in Brazil is estimated using the average of the municipal agricultural productivity of the last four or five years. Many researchers believe that using a probabilistic model for the distribution of agricultural productivity is a better methodology for this purpose. This study advocates using the skew-normal distribution as an alternative to the normal distribution to model the distribution of agricultural productivity in Brazil. We analyzed series of corn yield from 1981 to 2007, in 30 counties in Paraná State, Brazil. The skew-normal distribution showed better fits than the normal distribution for the vast majority of the counties, and, consequently, led to better estimates for the expected payment of crop insurance.

Issue Date:
Dec 30 2014
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
Published in:
Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Volume 52, Number 4
Page range:
Total Pages:
JEL Codes:
C22; Q19
Series Statement:
Volume 52
Number 04

 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-23

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