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Abstract
We examine a set of potentially climate smart agricultural practices, including
reduced tillage, crop rotation and legume intercropping, combined with the use of
improved seeds and inorganic fertiliser, for their effects on maize yields in Zambia.
We use panel data from the Rural Incomes and Livelihoods Surveys merged with a
novel set of climatic variables based on geo-referenced historical rainfall and temperature
data to explore the changing effects of these practices with climatic conditions.
We estimate the impacts on maize yields, and also on the exhibition of very
low yields and yield shortfalls from average levels, as indicators of resilience, while
controlling for household characteristics. We find that minimum soil disturbance
and crop rotation have no significant impact on these yield outcomes, but that
legume intercropping significantly increases yields and reduces the probability of
low yields even under critical weather stress during the growing season. We also
find that the average positive impacts of modern input use (seeds and fertilisers)
are significantly conditioned by climatic variables. Timely access to fertiliser
emerges as one of the most robust determinants of yields and their resilience. These
results have policy implications for targeted interventions to improve theproductivity and the resilience of smallholder agriculture in Zambia in the face of
climate change.