000206721 001__ 206721
000206721 005__ 20180123001219.0
000206721 037__ $$a824-2016-54838
000206721 041__ $$aen_US
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000206721 084__ $$aD81
000206721 084__ $$aH23
000206721 084__ $$aQ54
000206721 084__ $$aQ58
000206721 245__ $$aIntegrated Assessment of Climate Catastrophes with Endogenous Uncertainty: Does the Risk of Ice Sheet Collapse Justify Precautionary Mitigation?
000206721 260__ $$c2015-07-09
000206721 269__ $$a2015-07-09
000206721 270__ $$mdelavane@stanford.edu$$pDiaz,   Delavane B.
000206721 300__ $$a37
000206721 336__ $$aWorking or Discussion Paper
000206721 490__ $$aCCSD
000206721 490__ $$a064.2015
000206721 520__ $$aGreenhouse gas policies confront the trade-off between the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. The risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes is an important issue related to the latter, and one that has not yet been well incorporated into economic models for climate change policy analysis. This paper demonstrates a multistage stochastic programming framework for catastrophe modeling with endogenous uncertainty, applied to a benchmark integrated assessment model. This study moves beyond recent catastrophe or tipping point studies with arbitrary risk, instead investigating the specific threat of the uncertain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), characterized in accordance with recent expert elicitations, empirical results, and physical relationships. The stochastic DICE-WAIS model introduced here informs risk management strategies that balance uncertain future climate change impacts with the costs of mitigation investments today. This work finds that accounting for the consequences of the possible WAIS collapse in a stochastic setting with endogenous uncertainty leads to more stringent climate policy recommendations (increasing the CO2 control rate by an additional 4% of global emissions and raising the social cost of carbon by $10), reflecting the need to hedge against uncertainties with downside risk as well as pursue precautionary mitigation.
000206721 542__ $$fLicense granted by Andrea Portaluppi (andrea.portaluppi@feem.it) on 2015-07-09T08:22:29Z (GMT):

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000206721 650__ $$aEnvironmental Economics and Policy
000206721 650__ $$aRisk and Uncertainty
000206721 6531_ $$aClimate Change Policy
000206721 6531_ $$aSea Level Rise
000206721 6531_ $$aIce Sheet Collapse
000206721 6531_ $$aEndogenous Uncertainty
000206721 6531_ $$aStochastic Optimization
000206721 6531_ $$aGreenhouse Gas Mitigation
000206721 6531_ $$aRisk Management
000206721 700__ $$aDiaz, Delavane B.
000206721 8564_ $$s1788494$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206721/files/NDL2015-064.pdf
000206721 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/206721
000206721 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:206721$$pGLOBAL_SET
000206721 912__ $$nSubmitted by Andrea Portaluppi (andrea.portaluppi@feem.it) on 2015-07-09T08:25:12Z
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  Previous issue date: 2015-07-09
000206721 982__ $$gFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)>Climate Change and Sustainable Development
000206721 980__ $$a824