The Relations Between Population, Income, and Forest-based Products in China

The relationship between population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and timber and bamboo outputs in China is examined. The data consist of annual national level observations between 1953 and 2002. The results indicate that the elasticities between population, income and timber outputs are different in two periods, planned economy in 1953-1978 and market oriented economy or transformative economy in 1978-2002. The econometric specifications allowed studying the over-time development of the relationship as well. The results indicate that the population and income elasticities of forest products differed between the periods 1953-78 and 1979-2002. During the first, planned economy, period, the income elasticities were increasing, but they were decreasing during the latter, transition economy, period. Throughout the entire study period, the population elasticity of bamboo output showed a positive and an increasing pattern. In general the results can be used to derive global lessons, to forecast future consumption of forest-based products and in the planning of national forest policies.

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Scandinavian Forest Economics: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics
2004, Number 40
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