Responsiveness of Food Aid in Cereals to Fiuctuations in Supply in Donor and Recipient Countries

This paper attempts to analyze quantitatively the link between food aid and surplus production in the maJOr food aid donor countnes. Simple regression models were estimated for wheat, coarse grams, and nee using data for 1962-82, depending on the commodity and donor. Carryover stocks and world prices proved to be significant variables in explaining the vanability of food aid flows for all three commodities. Relative to the volume of food aid in each commodity, the effects of canyover stocks were substantial for rice, moderate for wheat, and relatively small for coarse grams. The pnce effects were considerable for wheat, moderate for coarse grams, and relatively small for nee. In terms of individual food aid donors, the two variables proved to be significant m explaining food aid shipments in the case of Canada, Japan, and the USA, which have generally provided food aid much in excess of their rninimun: commitment under the Food Aid Convention (PAC). For the other two ma1or donors (Australia and the European Community), food aid shipments were closely related to minimum commitments under the PAC. This paper further analyzes the response of food aid to production fluctuations m low mcome, food deficit countries. The response has been partial, estimated to cover only about 13 percent of cereal production shortfalls.

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 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-22

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