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Abstract
The population of Central European countries (CECs) is becoming less enthusiastic
about European Union (EU) accession than was the case immediately
after the fall of the Iron Curtain. It is feared that consumers will have to pay
higher food prices. National agricultural policies of most CECs are less protective
than the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Its implementation is therefore
expected to lead to adjustments in farm production, farm incomes and consumer
welfare. Farmers in CECs are concerned about growing competition
from Western Europe.
The 'Central and Eastern European Countries Agricultural Simulation Model'
(CEEC-ASIM) (Frohberg et al., 1997) is used to assess these impacts for
Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia and Slovenia (CEC-I), the potential
first-wave accession countries. In this paper a scenario of EU accession
under full application of the EU market regulations is compared with one of
unchanged national agricultural policies.