000019050 001__ 19050
000019050 005__ 20180122201324.0
000019050 037__ $$a1269-2016-101968
000019050 041__ $$aen
000019050 245__ $$aThe Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets
000019050 260__ $$c2005
000019050 269__ $$a2005
000019050 270__ $$molga123@uiuc.edu$$pIsengildina,   Olga
000019050 270__ $$msirwin@uiuc.edu$$pIrwin,   Scott H.
000019050 270__ $$md-good@uiuc.edu$$pGood,   Darrel L.
000019050 300__ $$a36
000019050 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000019050 446__ $$aEnglish
000019050 490__ $$a2005 Conference, St. Louis MO, April 18-19, 2005
000019050 520__ $$aThe economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the release of six major USDA situation and outlook reports for hogs and cattle from 1985 through 2003. These include Cattle, Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage, Hogs and Pigs,
Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO), and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. As a result of the process of modeling volatility of hog and cattle prices, a TARCH-in-mean model was specified that closely followed the distribution of these price movements. The effects of external information were evaluated within this model using dummy variables in the variance equation. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports on live/lean hog returns and all but LDPO reports on live cattle returns. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing average conditional standard deviation by 118.6% following the release of these reports. Cattle and Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live cattle returns by increasing average conditional standard deviation in both cases 44.8%. These results suggest that the information contained in USDA situation and outlook reports provides economically valuable information to livestock market participants.
000019050 650__ $$aLivestock Production/Industries
000019050 650__ $$aMarketing
000019050 700__ $$aIsengildina, Olga
000019050 700__ $$aIrwin, Scott H.
000019050 700__ $$aGood, Darrel L.
000019050 8564_ $$s405401$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19050/files/cp05is01.pdf
000019050 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/19050
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  Previous issue date: 2005
000019050 982__ $$gNCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management>2005 Conference, St. Louis, MO, April 18-19, 2005
000019050 980__ $$a1269