Multiple Horizons and Information in USDA Production Forecasts

USDA livestock production forecasts are evaluated for information across multiple horizons using the direct test developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez. Forecasts are explicitly tested for rationality (unbiased and efficient) as well as for incremental information out to three quarters ahead. The results suggest that although the forecasts are often not rational, they typically do provide the forecast user with unique information at each horizon. Turkey and milk production forecasts tended to provide the most consistent performance, while beef production forecasts provided little information beyond the two quarter horizon.

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2006 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

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