Farmers’ Subjective Perceptions of Yield and Yield Risk

Using survey responses of Illinois corn farmers to differently framed yield questions, we examine their subjective information by relating stated yields and risk to the corresponding objective county measures. The results show that farm-level yields can be best characterized by soliciting probabilistic information, which provides more accurate yield assessments than an open-ended frame and consistent estimates of producers’ subjective risk. Moreover, we find that overconfidence can be confused with differences in relevant information and that using recent data may be more appropriate in examining subjective risk statements. Our results are important for agricultural policy-makers and researchers, particularly those who work with surveys that include questions about producers’ yields.


Issue Date:
2006
Publication Type:
Conference Paper/ Presentation
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/18991
Total Pages:
14
Series Statement:
2006 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-24

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