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Abstract
This paper aims to analyze whether Brazilian smallholder farmers who adopt irrigation methods would be
more resilient to climate change when compared to smallholders producing rainfed crops. We developed a treatment
effects model, based in the Propensity Score Matching technique, which can explain irrigation adoption and net
revenues simultaneously. Temperature and precipitation projections for 2010-2099 were used considering different
climate scenarios according to the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results
confirmed the efficiency of irrigation as an adaptive strategy. For all simulation scenarios, land values of irrigators
are, on average, approximately twice the value of rainfed smallholders. It can be concluded that there is need of public
policies focused on developing strategies to cope with global warming effects in the agricultural sector. Moreover,
given the importance of irrigation adoption as an adaptive measure, it is needed to encourage the expansion of credit
lines for irrigation investments, especially for less capitalized farmers.