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Abstract
The term structure of options with future expiration dates traded at the CME
Group is calculated to forecast short and long-term realized volatility and price level of
soybean spot prices in Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso State). Extracting the implied volatility
with the Black (1976) model for commodities option pricing, the implied volatility variance
is decomposed in known and unknown intervals, used to forecast short and long-term
realized volatility. In addition, the implied volatility is used as a parameter in an empirical confidence interval equation to forecast the short and long-term price level, using the interval upper limit. Predictive
efficiency tests indicate that the forecasts of realized volatility based on the implied volatility have greater degree
of efficiency in the short term, while the naïve estimate is more efficient in the long-term. The empirical confidence
interval price level upper limit forecasts are more efficient in the long-term and the naïve estimates show more
efficiency in the short-term.