Greece is a major international tobacco producer. Flue-cured tobacco varieties constituted the major alternative crop to Greek farmers growing certain oriental tobacco varieties. Diffusion of flue-cured tobacco was rapid due to its high yields and the depressed market for certain oriental tobacco varieties. Currently, the common organisation of the tobacco market is undergoing substantial changes, and the farmers' response will be a vital factor of success. A portfolio selection model reveals that the major factors influencing the adoption decision of tobacco growers are the size of the farm measured in annual work units, the farm's proximity to urban centres, the farm's diversification and the farmer's age. The number of contacts with institutions is, surprisingly, inversely related to adoption. Future tobacco policies impinging on factors influencing decisions to adopt new varieties or production practices may be more cost-effective. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.