Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?

In this paper a simple model is developed in which the piglet price serves as a forecast for the hog price 3 months ahead. The model is tested on data from Northern Europe, viz. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland during the period 1982-1992. The empirical results lend strong support to the hypothesis that hog producers hold rational expectations when pricing the piglets. Thus, the weight adjusted piglet price typically represents an unbiased (conditional) forecast with unsystematic errors for the hog price one quarter later.


Issue Date:
1995-11
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/173733
Published in:
Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Volume 13, Issue 2
Page range:
119-123
Total Pages:
6




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-27

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