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Abstract
The Zambian Government encourages crop production in the Gwembe Valley without
taking into consideration the risks involved. These risks mainly originate from the stochastic
nature of rainfall. This paper, therefore, identifies optimal cropping patterns in the
Gwembe Valley by using Target MOT AD Model. The results of the Target MOT AD Model
indicate an optimal cropping pattern of growing sorghum, rice and soyabeans. This is
different from the existing cropping pattern of sorghum, sunflower, cotton and maize. The
overall policy implication of adopting the cropping pattern obtained from the model
solution is that some resources allocated to the production of current crops have to be
reallocated to the production of new crops. Moreover, since people in the Gwembe Valley
are used to growing of cotton, sunflower and maize, the adoption of the suggested new
crops will entail the education of the people (through extension services) in the crop
husbandry of these crops.