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Abstract
Peasant farmers in Sahelian West Africa adjust to rainfall uncertainties in the agricultural season by
making decisions sequentially as a function of the evolving rainfall patterns. Understanding such flexibilities
in farmer decision-making is central to technology introduction. This paper determines how sequential
decision-making under weather uncertainty affects the adoption and farm-level effects of cereal
technologies in Niger. The study also draws policy implications for a price floor to arrest the substantial
fall in cereal prices in good rainfall years when farmers have more grains to sell. The methodology used
is Discrete Stochastic Programming. This paper shows that the ability of peasant farmers to adapt cropping
and resource-management strategies to the rainfall patterns is the basis for their survival in this highrisk
environment. Model results show that by (a) carrying a portfolio mix of varieties of varying
maturities, and (b) making sequential decisions based upon rainfall expectations, farmers can adapt to
the production uncertainties. Breeding programs should therefore be diversified to develop not only
early-maturing cultivars, but also improved intermediate and long-season varieties.