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Abstract
This study assesses the intervention against avian influenza in Nigeria. It
applied a simple compartmental model to define endemic and burn-out scenarios for
the risk of spread of HPAI in Nigeria. It followed with the derivation of low and high
mortality risks associated to each scenario. The estimated risk parameters were subsequently
used to stochastically simulate the trajectory of the disease, had no intervention
been carried out. Overall, the intervention costs US$ 41 million, which was yearly disbursed
in various amounts over the 2006-2010 period. The key output variables (incremental
net benefit, disease cost, and benefit cost ratio) were estimated for each randomly
drawn risk parameter. With a 12% annual discount rate, the results show that the
intervention was economically justified under the endemic scenario with high mortality
risk. On average, incremental benefit under this scenario amounted to US$ 63.7 million,
incremental net benefit to US$27.2 million, and benefit cost ratio estimated to 1.75.