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Abstract

This article examines the potential market demand and economic welfare impacts of a potential foodborne illness outbreak in the US blackberry industry using an ex ante partial equilibrium demand-supply framework. Even though a food contamination event has not occurred for blackberries in the US, estimating the magnitude of economic losses from this incident (if it is to occur) is important information that can help guide food safety decisions of blackberry producers and industry stakeholders. Our numerical analysis suggest that total welfare loss from a food safety event in both the fresh and processed blackberry markets is around $16 million after 24 months. Blackberry producers, rather than consumers, are more adversely affected in terms of economic welfare losses, when a foodborne illness occurs. Given the extent of potential losses in the blackberry industry if an outbreak should occur, producer groups and the industry (as a whole) should consider further collective efforts to develop/implement novel interventions that can reduce the risk of an outbreak in the industry.

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