ESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PUCCINIA GRAMINIS F. SP. TRITICI TTKS RACE (UG99) (WHEAT STEM RUST)

An agricultural sector model estimates impacts for hypothetical U.S. outbreaks of Ug99 wheat stem rust. Scenarios describe reductions in wheat output and exports beginning in 2013. The four year losses in the welfare of wheat producers range from $1.7- $11.6 billion (-15% to -107%). In scenarios reflecting alternate assumptions of disease spread, consumers benefit from embargoed crops remaining in the United States. The consumer surplus change varies between a gain of $4.6 billion (0.3%) when importing countries embargo U.S. wheat shipments and turn to other suppliers and a loss of $1.4 billion (-0.1%) when other countries continue importing the reduced supplies of U.S. wheat. Treatment costs are $139 million to $2.4 billion.


Issue Date:
2014
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/164403
Total Pages:
23
JEL Codes:
Q02; Q13; Q17
Series Statement:
14-1




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-12-02

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