Files
Abstract
Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation
is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water
availability (‘allocations’) and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores
the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision
making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria.
Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation
year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted
against a perfect information base case. In water-scarce environments, hydroclimatic
uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation
decisions and the allocation of water via the water market.