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Abstract
This paper examines the job creation potential of the four main growth
targets in the Food Harvest 2020(FH2020), namely the growth targets for
milk, beef, sheep and pigs. The agri-food sector is predominantly rural based
and growth in this sector is important for the economy as a whole. As well
as the direct employment that would be created from an increase in activity
in the agriculture sector, there would be a knock on benefit for the rest of the
economy arising out of the linkages between agriculture and other economic
sectors, and the spending of those employed in the agri-food sector on goods
and services produced in the economy. Commonly this is described as the
multiplier impact. Two scenarios are simulated using different assumptions
to see how employment will respond to increased output: Scenario 1 shows
the effects of the four shocks using average employment intensities; Scenario
2 shows the effects of the four shocks using the marginal employment
intensities calculated using an econometric model to capture the unobserved
characteristics of the four main agricultural sectors over time. The results
of the second scenario are believed to be more accurate in simulating the
employment potential of the FH2020 targets.