Files
Abstract
The trend in instability in crop production in Gujarat has been analyzed for the 30-year period from
1980-81 to 2010-11 by following the method of ‘first differences’ or the moving period approach. The
relation of instability with growth has also been examined. While investigating the growth performance
at the district level, explicit account has been taken of the impact of rainfall on yield of crops/crop groups.
The study has observed the decade of 2000s to be the period of high growth in the agricultural sector.
But, despite accelerated agricultural growth in the 2000s’ decade, the influence of climatic variables is
rather strong on the productivity levels of major crops cultivated in Gujarat. This has been seen even for
the districts. The crop sector is marked by volatility in its growth. Research and policy support is needed
for raising productivity in the rain-fed areas and also for insulating the crop sector from year-to-year
variations in rainfall. The study has suggested that development of assured irrigation measures, ‘climatesmart’
agricultural practices, farmer-friendly insurance schemes and better weather forecasting would
provide a sound shield to crop production in Gujarat against the vagaries of weather and long-term
changes in climate.