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Abstract
This paper analyses the impact of tradable and non-tradable single farm
payment (SFP) entitlements for farm successors on structural change and the lease
market. Using the example of Swiss agriculture, the effects on rental-price trends and
farm-exit rates are investigated. An ex-ante normative impact analysis is performed
with the agent-based agricultural-sector model SWISSland, which simulates structural
change processes and income trends in Swiss agriculture over a period of up to
15 years. A land market implemented at municipality level simulates the plot-by-plot
leasing of land to surrounding neighbouring agents that is common in Switzerland.
Allocation of plots to tenants as well as lease pricing is modelled taking into account
the farm-specific land rents. The results show that personalised SFP entitlements
which could not be transferred to a farm successor not only cause an intensification of
structural change, but would also thus lead to a substantial reduction in rental prices.
SFP entitlements which were successfully transferred to farm successors have only a
slight impact on structural change and the rental prices of arable land. Only for grassland
in the mountain region does a stronger shift result in a significant reduction in
rental prices.