000151972 001__ 151972
000151972 005__ 20170827061207.0
000151972 037__ $$a355-2016-18168
000151972 041__ $$aen_US
000151972 084__ $$aL16
000151972 084__ $$aL66
000151972 084__ $$aE30
000151972 245__ $$aThe hazard function of sales: An analysis of UK supermarket food prices
000151972 260__ $$c2013-04
000151972 269__ $$a2013-04
000151972 270__ $$mHao.Lan@nottingham.ac.uk$$pLan,   Hao
000151972 300__ $$a48
000151972 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000151972 520__ $$aIn this paper we examine the empirical pattern of sales behaviour among the UK’s seven
largest retail chains using a scanner dataset of weekly food prices on over 500 products over
a 2.5 year period. Motivating the analysis is the question ’are products more likely to go
on sale that longer they remain unpromoted?’. Theory is not unanimous and empirical and
recent empirical studies also offer conflicting evidence. To address the question we estimate
the hazard rate of a sale - probability that a product goes on sale in the tth week since the
last sale - over the market as a whole and then separately across different national retailers.
We pay particular attention to the effects of sales in like-for-like products in rival retailers
on the hazard of a sale. We also find that accounting for multiple sales has a pivotal role
in determining the slope of the hazard function, which actually reverses sign when proper
account is taken of this seemingly innocuous technicality. Correcting for this we find that
food products are more likely to be discounted the longer they remain without a sale. This
result helps square the circle between price setting and modern theories of sales behaviour.
Furthermore, we find that the positive time-dependent pattern varies across product format
and brand status. With sales in rivals, branded products in a representative retailer are
more likely to be discounted if it has been on sale previously in the rival retailers, however
the hazard of a sale in private labels is unrelated to its rival sales. In the individual retailer
level, the hazard results show that while most supermarkets exhibit some form of a ’hi-lo’
pricing there is one retail chain does not (showing no time-dependence) preferring an every
day low pricing strategy (EDLP).
000151972 542__ $$fLicense granted by Linda Eells (lle@umn.edu) on 2013-07-02T14:11:16Z (GMT):

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000151972 650__ $$aDemand and Price Analysis
000151972 650__ $$aResearch Methods/ Statistical Methods
000151972 6531_ $$asales
000151972 6531_ $$athe hazard function
000151972 6531_ $$amultiple sales
000151972 700__ $$aLan, Hao
000151972 700__ $$aLloyd, Tim A.
000151972 700__ $$aMorgan, C. Wyn
000151972 773__ $$d2013
000151972 8564_ $$s698839$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/151972/files/AES2013.pdf
000151972 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/151972
000151972 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:151972$$qGLOBAL_SET
000151972 912__ $$nSubmitted by Linda Eells (lle@umn.edu) on 2013-07-02T14:14:53Z
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  Previous issue date: 2013-04
000151972 982__ $$gAgricultural Economics Society>87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK
000151972 980__ $$a355