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Abstract
This paper aims to verify the impacts of the Biosafety Protocol on Brazilian
exports, as the country was the only one amid the biggest world agricultural commodities
producers that has ratified it. The analysis focused on Article 18 and also on the soybean
market. The additional costs to identify LMOs were calculated to Brazil, Argentina
and the US considering the main proposals submitted during negotiations. The figures revealed that the compliance costs are higher in Brazil compared to the other countries
and that this difference increases as the exigencies become stricter. The potential
impacts of these additional costs in the international market were estimated using the
Equilibrium Displacement Model. It was considered a scenario under which only Brazil
complied with CPB standards and another one where Argentina and the US also adopted
equivalent measures. The results showed that Brazil would be harmed in both situations.
The country could loose US$ 133 million under Scenario 1 and US$ 329 million under
Scenario 2. Regarding Argentina and the US, the Scenario 2 presents better results.
Therefore, it is almost certain that these countries will comply with CPB requirements.
It implies that Brazil will incur in greater losses.