000014762 001__ 14762
000014762 005__ 20180122195525.0
000014762 037__ $$a642-2016-44062
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000014762 084__ $$aO1
000014762 084__ $$aD1
000014762 084__ $$aQ12
000014762 245__ $$aBAYESIAN HERDERS: ASYMMETRIC UPDATING OF RAINFALL BELIEFS IN RESPONSE TO EXTERNAL FORECASTS
000014762 260__ $$c2003
000014762 269__ $$a2003
000014762 270__ $$mtjl22@cornell.edu$$pLybbert,   Travis J.
000014762 270__ $$mcbb2@cornell.edu$$pBarrett,   Christopher
000014762 270__ $$mwluseno@rti.org$$pLuseno,   Winnie K.
000014762 300__ $$a42
000014762 336__ $$aWorking or Discussion Paper
000014762 446__ $$aEnglish
000014762 490__ $$aWorking Paper 2003-17
000014762 520__ $$aTemporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Recent advances in model-based climate forecasting have expanded the range, timeliness and accuracy of forecasts available to decision-makers whose welfare depends on stochastic climate outcomes. There has consequently been considerable recent investment in improved climate forecasting for the developing world. Yet, in cultures that have long used indigenous climate forecasting methods, forecasts generated and disseminated by outsiders using unfamiliar methods may not readily gain the acceptance necessary to induce behavioral change.  The value of model-based climate forecasts depends critically on the premise that forecast recipients actually use external forecast information to update their rainfall expectations.  We test this premise using unique survey data from pastoralists and agropastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, specifying and estimating a model of herders updating seasonal rainfall beliefs.  We find that those who receive and believe model-based seasonal climate forecasts indeed update their priors in the direction of the forecast received, assimilating optimistic forecasts more readily than pessimistic forecasts.
000014762 650__ $$aAgribusiness
000014762 700__ $$aLybbert, Travis J.
000014762 700__ $$aBarrett, Christopher B.
000014762 700__ $$aMcPeak, John G.
000014762 700__ $$aLuseno, Winnie K.
000014762 8564_ $$s493560$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14762/files/wp030017.pdf
000014762 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/14762
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wp030017.pdf: 493560 bytes, checksum: 282922910eeb61e6012bfdb5c410ef87 (MD5)
  Previous issue date: 2003
000014762 982__ $$gCornell University>Department of Applied Economics and Management>Working Papers
000014762 980__ $$a642