South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030

If rapid growth in the global economic importance of some emerging economies continues to be strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, so too will be the growth in that region’s demand for imports of primary products, to the on-going benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper projects global trade patterns over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes. The GTAP model and Version 8 of the GTAP database are used, together with supplementary data and growth forecasts from a range of sources. The baseline projection from 2007 to 2030 assumes trade-related policies do not change in each region but that agricultural land, extractable mineral resources, population, skilled and unskilled labour, capital and real GDP grow at exogenously-inserted rates. That core projection of the world economy is compared with a number of alternative scenarios. Implications for South American versus other natural resource-abundant economies are highlighted.

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Working or Discussion Paper
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JEL Codes:
D58; F13; F15; F17; Q17
Revision of a paper presented at the IATRC/IAAE Pre-Congress Symposium on Globalization, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and South America as the World’s Food Basket, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 18 August 2012.
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IATRC Working Paper

 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-22

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