An Economic Indicator for the State of the Economy in the Southeastern U.S.

A state space model is constructed so that a state variable representing the unobservable state of the economy is estimated from information on new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery time, and finished inventory obtained from the purchasing managers’ sur-vey for Georgia. This state variable captures the co-movements of the time series used in its construction and serves as an economic indicator for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Caro-lina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Even though this economic indicator is estimated from information from the purchasing managers’ survey on manufacturing activity for just Geor-gia, it produces reasonable forecasts for the real growth rates of the gross domestic products of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee for 1991 through 2008.


Issue Date:
2012
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/143761
Published in:
Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Volume 42, Issue 1
Total Pages:
27




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-26

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