Forecasting the Demand for Agricultural Products

Self-appraisal--serious self-appraisal--is often recommended, rarely practiced. But the following article is a serious effort to set down and appraise the process or methods by which the Bureau of Agricultural Economics does develop its appraisal of the general economic situation which plays so important a part in our commodity, price, and agricultural outlook work. This statement was first prepared by James P. Cavin, formerly Head of the Division of Statistical and Historical Research, in the form of a paper which was presented at the annual meeting of the American Statistical Association in New York City on December 29, 1949. Since that time the original statement has been subjected to review by a considerable number of persons both within and without the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, and the current article is a revision, prepared by Mr. Cavin in collaboration with Nathan Koffsky, which also brings the analysis through 1951.

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Agricultural Economics Research, Volume 04, Number 3
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 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-22

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