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Abstract
Numerous solutions to the global coffee crisis have been suggested, including
some form of supply constraint. UNCTAD’s Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation
Model (ATPSM) is used to assess the likely changes in coffee prices and export
revenues of effective production constraints. Results indicate that a 10 per cent
reduction of exports in the four major producing countries is estimated to increase
world prices by 17 per cent and increase these countries' export revenues by 6 per cent
in the long run. Other coffee exporters would increase their exports and therefore
would gain proportionally more. Further gains would result from the additional
production of alternative crops.