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Abstract
The potential for supplementing sparse economic data and aggregate production data
with a detailed specification of land quality constraints obtained from a Geographical
Information System, in order to parameterise a regional model of rice acreage
response in Vietnam, is investigated in this paper. It is asserted that such an approach
has advantages in terms of improved credibility amongst agricultural scientists cum
policy makers because of the detailed attention to land capability, compared to
conventional elasticity based approaches that are commonly used for agricultural
policy analysis when data is scarce. The approach relies on the use of Positive
Mathematical Programming to calibrate the acreage response for land classes where
more than one farming system is observed in the baseline data. Sensitivity of the
model to the nature of the calibration assumptions are presented, and results regarding
acreage response with respect to rice prices, in different seasons and regions are
presented and discussed.
It is concluded that while the current model relies on some heroic assumptions
regarding interpretation of the available information, it could be improved
considerably, and at low cost, if taken up and developed within the Ministry. There
remains, however, a research agenda regarding farm household decision making in
rice based production systems of Vietnam that could provide for improved calibration
in the future.