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Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of increasing population density in Kenya’s rural areas on
smallholder behavior and welfare indicators. We first present evidence to explain how land
constraints can be emerging within an overall context of apparent land under-utilization. Using
data from five panel surveys on 1,146 small-scale farms over the 1997-2010 period, we use
econometric techniques to determine how increasing rural population density is affecting farm
household behavior and livelihoods. We find that farm productivity and incomes tend to rise
with population density up to 600-650 persons per km2; beyond this threshold, rising population
density is associated with sharp declines in farm productivity, total household income, and asset
wealth. Currently 14% of Kenya’s rural population resides in areas exceeding this population
density. The study concludes by exploring the nature of institutional and policy reforms needed
to address these development problems.