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Abstract
Over the last decades traditional energy sources are increasingly replaced by energy from
biomass and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Assessing the efficiency of
bioenergy policies requires a comprehensive analysis of the interrelationship between
agricultural and energy markets. This study analyzes the impacts of two alternative EU
greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios on the utilization of biomass for energy
production and the price of agricultural products. To this end, we combine the energy system
model TIMES PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM. We establish a consistent
interface between the models and run them in an iterative procedure where TIMES PanEU
represents the demand side for energy crops and ESIM their supply side. According to our
results, an extension of the mandatory reduction of emissions has strong biomass demand
effects and affects the agricultural sector in its entirety. Due to the increased demand for
energy crops, average crop prices in the EU increase by an estimated 30 percentage points
in 2050. The expanded area use for production of energy crops inside the EU27 turns the EU
from being a net exporter to a net importer for many important agricultural commodities.