Files
Abstract
We employ a heavily modified ‘agricultural’ variant of the GTAP model and a realistic
baseline scenario to assess the impact on the Greek economy from a hypothetical ‘hub
and spoke’ and a ‘FTA’ EUMED agro-food and fisheries trade agreement. Long run
estimates show that Greek agro-food and fisheries sectors are not seriously affected,
where surprisingly, trade diversionary losses to Greece from the FTA scenario are minor
given minimal south-south trade links between Mediterranean Partner Countries
(MPC). Further research shows that under complete CAP decoupling, notable additional
welfare gains for MPC are realised, whilst Greece stands to lose approximately
€300 million.