000105548 001__ 105548 000105548 005__ 20180122215237.0 000105548 037__ $$a1835-2016-149412 000105548 037__ $$a1835-2016-149792 000105548 041__ $$aen 000105548 245__ $$aModeling Stochastic Crop Yield Expectations with a Limiting Beta Distribution 000105548 260__ $$c2011-04 000105548 269__ $$a2011-04 000105548 300__ $$a15 000105548 336__ $$aJournal Article 000105548 520__ $$aThe use of plausible stochastic price processes in price risk analysis has allowed advances not seen in crop yield risk analysis. This study develops a stochastic process for yield modeling and risk management. The Pólya urn process is an internally consistent dynamic representation of yield expectations over a growing season that accommodates agronomic events such as growing degree days. The limiting distribution is the commonly used beta distribution. Binomial tree analysis of the process allows us to explore hedging decisions and crop valuation. The method is empirically flexible to accommodate alternative assumptions on the growing environment, such as intra-season input decisions. 000105548 542__ $$fLicense granted by Mengyao Luan (luanx012@umn.edu) on 2011-06-01T20:42:53Z (GMT): <center> <h2> Deposit Agreement </h2> </center> I represent that I am the creator of the digital material identified herein (“Work”). I represent that the work is original and that I either own all rights of copyright or have the right to deposit the copy in a digital archive such as AgEcon Search. I represent that in regard to any non-original material included in the Work I have secured written permission of the copyright owner (s) for this use or believe this use is allowed by law. I further represent that I have included all appropriate credits and attributions. I hereby grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota (“University”), through AgEcon Search, a non-exclusive right to access, reproduce, and distribute the Work, in whole or in part, for the purposes of security, preservation, and perpetual access. I grant the University a limited, non-exclusive right to make derivative works for the purpose of migrating the Work to other media or formats in order to preserve access to the Work. I do not transfer or intend to transfer any right of copyright or other intellectual property to the University. If the Deposit Agreement is executed by the Author�s Representative, the Representative shall separately execute the following representation: I represent that I am authorized by the Author to execute this Deposit Agreement on behalf of the Author. 000105548 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries 000105548 6531_ $$acrop abandonment 000105548 6531_ $$acrop insurance 000105548 6531_ $$aderivative analysis 000105548 6531_ $$agrowing degree days 000105548 6531_ $$aPólya’s urn 000105548 6531_ $$astochastic process 000105548 700__ $$aHennessy, David A. 000105548 773__ $$dApril 2011$$jVolume 36$$kNumber 1$$o191$$q177$$tJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 000105548 8564_ $$s377959$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/105548/files/JARE_Apr2011__11_pp177-191_Hennessy.pdf 000105548 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/105548 000105548 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:105548$$pGLOBAL_SET 000105548 912__ $$nSubmitted by Mengyao Luan (luanx012@umn.edu) on 2011-06-01T20:46:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JARE,Apr2011,#11,pp177-191,Hennessy.pdf: 377959 bytes, checksum: cf439b3338c250d6cf7ca90be4856195 (MD5) 000105548 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2011-06-01T20:46:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JARE,Apr2011,#11,pp177-191,Hennessy.pdf: 377959 bytes, checksum: cf439b3338c250d6cf7ca90be4856195 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04 000105548 982__ $$gJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics>Volume 36, Number 1, April 2011 000105548 980__ $$a1835