000104420 001__ 104420 000104420 005__ 20180122215223.0 000104420 037__ $$a321-2016-10836 000104420 041__ $$aen 000104420 245__ $$aTime-varying Yield Distributions and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program 000104420 260__ $$c2011 000104420 269__ $$a2011 000104420 270__ $$myzhu@ncsu.edu$$pZhu, Ying 000104420 270__ $$mbarry_goodwin@ncsu.edu$$pGoodwin, Barry K. 000104420 270__ $$msujit_ghosh@ncsu.edu$$pGhosh, Sujit K. 000104420 300__ $$a27 000104420 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation 000104420 490__ $$aSelected Paper 000104420 490__ $$a13783 000104420 520__ $$aThe objective of this study is to evaluate and model the yield risk associated with major agricultural commodities in the U.S. We are particularly concerned with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which primarily arises because of technological progress and changing environmental conditions. Precise risk assessment depends on the accuracy of modeling this distribution. This problem becomes more challenging as the yield distribution changes over time, a condition that holds for nearly all major crops. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yield is first detrended and then the estimated residuals are treated as observed data and modeled using various parametric or nonparametric methods. We propose an alternative parametric model that allows the moments of the yield distributions to change with time. Several model selection techniques suggest that the proposed time-varying model outperforms more conventional models in terms of in-sample goodness-of-fit, out-of- sample predictive power and the prediction accuracy of insurance premium rates. 000104420 542__ $$fLicense granted by Ying Zhu (yzhu@ncsu.edu) on 2011-05-12T02:37:39Z (GMT): <center> <h2> Deposit Agreement </h2> </center> I represent that I am the creator of the digital material identified herein (“Work”). I represent that the work is original and that I either own all rights of copyright or have the right to deposit the copy in a digital archive such as AgEcon Search. I represent that in regard to any non-original material included in the Work I have secured written permission of the copyright owner (s) for this use or believe this use is allowed by law. I further represent that I have included all appropriate credits and attributions. I hereby grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota (“University”), through AgEcon Search, a non-exclusive right to access, reproduce, and distribute the Work, in whole or in part, for the purposes of security, preservation, and perpetual access. I grant the University a limited, non-exclusive right to make derivative works for the purpose of migrating the Work to other media or formats in order to preserve access to the Work. I do not transfer or intend to transfer any right of copyright or other intellectual property to the University. If the Deposit Agreement is executed by the Author�s Representative, the Representative shall separately execute the following representation: I represent that I am authorized by the Author to execute this Deposit Agreement on behalf of the Author. 000104420 650__ $$aRisk and Uncertainty 000104420 700__ $$aZhu, Ying 000104420 700__ $$aGoodwin, Barry K. 000104420 700__ $$aGhosh, Sujit K. 000104420 773__ $$o27$$q1 000104420 8564_ $$s299074$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/104420/files/presentation_13783_zhu_2011.pdf 000104420 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/104420 000104420 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:104420$$pGLOBAL_SET 000104420 912__ $$nSubmitted by Ying Zhu (yzhu@ncsu.edu) on 2011-05-12T02:50:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 presentation_13783_zhu_2011.pdf: 299074 bytes, checksum: 8976676d013d78d964e2c1e8cebeee77 (MD5) 000104420 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2011-05-12T02:50:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 presentation_13783_zhu_2011.pdf: 299074 bytes, checksum: 8976676d013d78d964e2c1e8cebeee77 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 000104420 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 000104420 980__ $$a321