000104420 001__ 104420
000104420 005__ 20180122215223.0
000104420 037__ $$a321-2016-10836
000104420 041__ $$aen
000104420 245__ $$aTime-varying Yield Distributions and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program
000104420 260__ $$c2011
000104420 269__ $$a2011
000104420 270__ $$myzhu@ncsu.edu$$pZhu,   Ying
000104420 270__ $$mbarry_goodwin@ncsu.edu$$pGoodwin,   Barry K.
000104420 270__ $$msujit_ghosh@ncsu.edu$$pGhosh,   Sujit K.
000104420 300__ $$a27
000104420 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000104420 490__ $$aSelected Paper
000104420 490__ $$a13783
000104420 520__ $$aThe objective of this study is to evaluate and model the yield risk associated
with major agricultural commodities in the U.S. We are particularly concerned
with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which primarily arises
because of technological progress and changing environmental conditions. Precise
risk assessment depends on the accuracy of modeling this distribution. This problem
becomes more challenging as the yield distribution changes over time, a condition
that holds for nearly all major crops. A common approach to this problem
is based on a two-stage method in which the yield is first detrended and then
the estimated residuals are treated as observed data and modeled using various
parametric or nonparametric methods. We propose an alternative parametric
model that allows the moments of the yield distributions to change with time.
Several model selection techniques suggest that the proposed time-varying model
outperforms more conventional models in terms of in-sample goodness-of-fit, out-of-
sample predictive power and the prediction accuracy of insurance premium rates.
000104420 542__ $$fLicense granted by Ying Zhu (yzhu@ncsu.edu) on 2011-05-12T02:37:39Z (GMT):

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000104420 650__ $$aRisk and Uncertainty
000104420 700__ $$aZhu, Ying
000104420 700__ $$aGoodwin, Barry K.
000104420 700__ $$aGhosh, Sujit K.
000104420 773__ $$o27$$q1
000104420 8564_ $$s299074$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/104420/files/presentation_13783_zhu_2011.pdf
000104420 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/104420
000104420 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:104420$$pGLOBAL_SET
000104420 912__ $$nSubmitted by Ying Zhu (yzhu@ncsu.edu) on 2011-05-12T02:50:31Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
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000104420 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2011-05-12T02:50:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
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  Previous issue date: 2011
000104420 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
000104420 980__ $$a321