000103691 001__ 103691
000103691 005__ 20180122215113.0
000103691 037__ $$a321-2016-10993
000103691 041__ $$aen
000103691 245__ $$aBiophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change
000103691 260__ $$c2011
000103691 269__ $$a2011
000103691 270__ $$mhertel@purdue.edu$$pHertel,   Thomas
000103691 270__ $$mdlobell@stanford.edu$$pLobell,   David
000103691 270__ $$mverma3@purdue.edu$$pVerma,   Monika
000103691 300__ $$a17
000103691 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000103691 520__ $$aThis paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of productivity shocks reflecting the impacts of climate on agricultural yields in 2030. These shocks, in turn, affect the global economy. The response of economic agents to climate change is the second source of uncertainty in our estimates. We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, we find that the responses of output and exports can be far more robust. This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative prices, and relative prices depend on productivity changes relative to other crops in a given region, or relative to similar crops in other parts of the world. We also find that uncertainty in poverty impacts of climate change appears to be almost entirely driven by biophysical uncertainty. Further reducing this uncertainty will require improving climate models and the crop models used to interpret the impacts of likely future climate on crop productivity.
000103691 542__ $$fLicense granted by Monika Verma (verma3@purdue.edu) on 2011-05-03T14:03:20Z (GMT):

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000103691 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries
000103691 650__ $$aEnvironmental Economics and Policy
000103691 650__ $$aInternational Relations/Trade
000103691 6531_ $$aClimate Change Uncertainty
000103691 700__ $$aHertel, Thomas W.
000103691 700__ $$aLobell, David
000103691 700__ $$aVerma, Monika
000103691 8564_ $$s510326$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103691/files/AAEA2011.pdf
000103691 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/103691
000103691 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:103691$$pGLOBAL_SET
000103691 912__ $$nSubmitted by Monika Verma (verma3@purdue.edu) on 2011-05-03T14:18:50Z
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000103691 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2011-05-03T14:18:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
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  Previous issue date: 2011
000103691 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
000103691 980__ $$a321