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Abstract
Avian infl uenza has led to serious social, political
and commercial problems. To keep countries free from this disease, it is of great importance to
focus surveillance and early warning programs at points of higher entry and spread risk. One is the
arrival of infected migratory birds and the subsequent virus transfer to nearby production systems.
In the case of Chile, 32 wetlands were identifi ed, in which this situation occurs. This work uses
the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to obtain a ranking of these wetlands. To that end, a panel of
experts identifi ed risk factors, which were subsequently evaluated using agricultural census data.
The obtained ranking showed that the wetlands of Lake Budi, the mouth of River Maipo and the El
Yali wetland, had the highest risk scores. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model was robust to
changes in priorities of the decision model.